Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".