Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
