Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
